The Premiership 20/21 April

[winbet]

Lets get the ball rolling this week. First up is a game that is a great example of the pitfalls of capping games in one certain way and how stats can be turned in only 3 games. There are times that working out the overall true line can feel a waste as 9 times out of 10 its a mirror of what the Oddsmakers say, the same same can be said about pricing in recent form but a couple of quick filters can leave you with a small amount of Games which gives you the time for this. Regardless of that it gives you a solid base to work from knowing where the Oddsmakers are coming from and where the Prices might be going.

Normal pricing of the Everton-Aston Villa game came up with 2.57 & 3.22. on its own it can be reasoned by Villas recent winning form, however, were you to price this Game up 3 weeks ago it would have come out at 2.29 & 3.72. When analysing the form it was surprisingly Everton who marginally had the best recent form mainly through strength of opponent and those Villa games should be a red flag to anyone handicapping Games solely on Goal averages.

Unfortunately the Books have seen through this and priced up Everton accordingly but there is a possibility that Punters are buying into Villas wins as Villas price in the market is meeting some resistance. Another thing the Punters might take on board is the inflated Goal averages which most will cap well over the correct line, I even have it higher, all this may give added value to what looks like the percentage play, Everton 0 on the Asian market. Not only can We hope for the price to increase but We can look to eliminate non value parts of that selection to make it more Punter Friendly.

Other games being looked at are
West Ham-Newcastle
Portsmouth-Blackburn
Wigan-Reading
Sunderland-Middlesbro
Chelsea-Man Utd.
More Later. :drink:

 

[winbet]

West Ham - Newcastle
A West Ham Friend told me that they were diabolical on Saturday against Derby and with Newcastle on a roll scoring, the OVER 2.5 Goals seems a fair bet. Newcastles recent flurry of zero goals against in 4 of their last 5 must be tempered with 3 out of 39 prior to that and with the probability of West Ham scoring being 1/3 the 2.16 offered by Pinny is reasonable. I will be making this a 1/2 Unit play strictly as My own figures give the Over as 2.12 and considering the 1-1 Draw is a high percentage in this Match I may use the extra .16 to cover that.

At this time the Sunderland-Middesbro game is a scrub as both Teams are too inconsistant in their matched Stats. I have leans to Wigan, the Portsmouth Draw and of course Everton but am waiting on more favourable prices and Team info. The chelsea game can wait till the dust settles on the Championship Games. :drink:

 

[joeyfitzclick]

Take Man Utd.

You're welcome.

 

[quantumleap]

West Ham - Newcastle
A West Ham Friend told me that they were diabolical on Saturday against Derby and with Newcastle on a roll scoring, the OVER 2.5 Goals seems a fair bet. Newcastles recent flurry of zero goals against in 4 of their last 5 must be tempered with 3 out of 39 prior to that and with the probability of West Ham scoring being 1/3 the 2.16 offered by Pinny is reasonable. I will be making this a 1/2 Unit play strictly as My own figures give the Over as 2.12 and considering the 1-1 Draw is a high percentage in this Match I may use the extra .16 to cover that.

At this time the Sunderland-Middesbro game is a scrub as both Teams are too inconsistant in their matched Stats. I have leans to Wigan, the Portsmouth Draw and of course Everton but am waiting on more favourable prices and Team info. The chelsea game can wait till the dust settles on the Championship Games. :drink:

winner, do you ever take a Standard Deviation approach when analyzing games? The Sunderland-Middlesbro match would then come out with a high SD. One would then look for matches with a low SD if they wanted to minimize risk.

 

[winbet]

QL,
All I do is use the league Averages much in the same way oddsmakers would, not sure thats your SD but all I'm trying to do with these figures is have a solid base to work with and know where the Books have come from. As I said at the start, this is more an exercise to hopefully fine tune a few things for next Season and your more than welcome to throw in any theories you have. One problem I have though is over the years I have found too many Figures and Stats tend to get you bogged down and lose touch on the reality of the Game.
As for the Sunderland Game, by inconsistencies in the figures I mean things like both sides appear to have shown improved form lately but at the same time lost games they should have won. The low Goal expectancy, while matching that of the under/over 2.5 Goal figures dont lay to well with others like no goals Percentage. All in all a pass as everything points to better value plays elsewhere. :drink:

 

[quantumleap]

QL,
All I do is use the league Averages much in the same way oddsmakers would, not sure thats your SD but all I'm trying to do with these figures is have a solid base to work with and know where the Books have come from. As I said at the start, this is more an exercise to hopefully fine tune a few things for next Season and your more than welcome to throw in any theories you have. One problem I have though is over the years I have found too many Figures and Stats tend to get you bogged down and lose touch on the reality of the Game.
As for the Sunderland Game, by inconsistencies in the figures I mean things like both sides appear to have shown improved form lately but at the same time lost games they should have won. The low Goal expectancy, while matching that of the under/over 2.5 Goal figures dont lay to well with others like no goals Percentage. All in all a pass as everything points to better value plays elsewhere. :drink:

When I referred to a large SD I meant teams that play well one day and don't do well another day. Or another example would be a team that scores over 2 1/2 for a while and then goes under 2 1/2 for a while. In other words, a very inconsistent team.

:drink:

 

[winbet]

When I referred to a large SD I meant teams that play well one day and don't do well another day. Or another example would be a team that scores over 2 1/2 for a while and then goes under 2 1/2 for a while. In other words, a very inconsistent team.

QL,
I suppose by selecting games where the books have considered are close then by default they constitute what you call High SD as the outcome is harder to predict than say United playing at Home against Bolton. I would be more than happy having a bet on the Sunderland game if I could have got some steady stats like Portsmouth 0-0 35% & Blackburn 1-1 27.7% together making the Draw value but alas too many conflicts. :drink:

 

[winbet]

Final plays,
Portsmouth-Blackburn
As stated earlier, the 35% on Portsmouths 0-0 when put with blackburns 27.7% @ 1-1 makes the Draw value and there's no saving betting correct scores.
West Ham-Newcastle
Once again everything above makes the OVER 2.5 the play, I was going to halve my stake because of west Hams injury problems but the stats really make this a full bet.
Wigan-Reading
I was toying with several percentage friendly scores but the reality here is Wigan is a good Team at Home playing a sliding reading Team. With wigan winning 47% of their home games, keeping the opposition scoreless 47% of the time and Reading failing to score in 35% of their Matches, Wigan on the 1x2 or -0.5 on the asian will be the bet, just waiting to see which will give better odds.
Everton-Aston Villa
There are good reasons to bet Everton in this Game but their overall form has deteriorated recently through injury so the less heavy approach of correct score is probably safer. Its highly unlikely either Team will score Two so 1-0 which runs at 17.6% and 1-1 are the value bets.

Portsmouth Draw 1 Unit @ 3.40
West Ham Over 2.5 goals 1 Unit @ 2.16
Wigan 1 unit either 1x2 / -0.5 1 Unit @ 2.10
Everton 1-0, 0.12 Unit @ 8 and 1-1 0.14 @ 7